Mayor Oh Se-hoon’s surprising election victory on June 3 stirred a wave of commentary on the rise of conservatism in Seoul. Most pundits agreed that interest in real estate redevelopment, particularly in the upscale Gangnam area, was the primary factor behind Oh’s victory. The Democratic Party of Korea improved its performance over 2022 in elections for the city council, district mayors and district councils. This contradictory trend leaves the question of where Seoul is headed unanswered.
A walk through recent history helps answer this question. During the long economic boom from the 1960s to the 1990s, Seoul attracted young people from around the country. Youthful energy, particularly on university campuses, combined with higher incomes, gave the city a forward-looking character that embraced new ideas and trends. In terms of being open to change, Seoul was the most “progressive” city in the country.
The boom years, particularly under Park Chung-hee’s long rule from 1961 to 1979, saw an imbalance in development between the southeast Yeongnam region and the southwest Honam region. This caused large numbers of people from Honam to move to Seoul for economic opportunity. During the 1970s and 1980s, Honam migrants strongly supported Kim Dae-jung, one of the leaders of the democracy movement. In an op-ed piece in The New York Times in 1987, then-candidate Kim argued that he would win the election (he came in third) because about a third of the population of Seoul was from his home region of Honam.
In the 1980s, the peak of the democracy movement, university students, religious activists and migrants from Honam formed a powerful coalition that gave the democracy movement broad support. After democratization in 1987, the city has consistently supported center-left candidates in presidential elections, except for 2007 and 2022.
The exception, of course, is Gangnam, which has consistently supported center-right candidates, while most of the rest of the city supported center-left candidates. This pattern has also held in elections for the National Assembly and local elections. In the recent June 3rd elections, Democratic Party candidate Chong Won-o won 15 of the city’s 25 districts, but Oh Se-hoon won 66 percent of the vote in Gangnam-gu and 84 percent in Apgujeong-dong, which helped put him over the top by making up for losses elsewhere. Dissatisfaction with President Lee Jae Myung’s efforts to rein in real estate prices explains much of Oh’s surge in Gangnam.
Gangnam traces its origins to large-scale apartment developments in the 1970s and 1980s, but the wave of redevelopment that began in the 2000s has brought apartments to every corner of the city. In the process, the stock of older, less expensive housing has been reduced, forcing many lower-income residents to move to Incheon or Gyeonggi Province to find affordable housing. Over time, this has caused the demographics of Seoul to become more like upper-middle-class Gangnam and therefore more conservative.
The 2010s saw the beginnings of a shift toward center-right candidates among young men. This has since accelerated, which has deprived the center-left of one of its most reliable support groups. This has changed the face of politics on university campuses, which had long supported left-leaning political movements.
“Gangnamization” and the shift to the right among young men are tangible trends, but it’s too early to declare the city conservative. The Democratic Party drew on the popularity of President Lee Jae Myung to perform well on June 3rd. As young men have become more conservative, young women have shifted to the left, which largely offsets the male vote. The large generation that came of age in the 1980s and 1990s continues to lean center-left, giving the Democratic Party a high floor of support.
Looking at the future, the most important question is whether Gangnamization will continue or run out of steam. A walk through almost any older neighborhood in Seoul reveals signs of potential redevelopment, which suggests strong grassroots pressure for continued redevelopment. If so, Seoul will continue to drift right as wealthier residents replace lower-income residents.
Big trends often hit a wall abruptly. Since the economic boom, real estate in South Korea has been viewed as an investment tool rather than a place to live. The current boom in the stock market, if it continues, could change that perception. That, in turn, could slow interest in redevelopment, which could see housing affordability jump in popularity as people shift money out of real estate. If so, this could cause a leftward shift as voters reward politicians who address affordability, a longstanding center-left issue.